Understanding Nfl Odds
Typically, a point spread has odds of -110 for either side of the bet. In the example above between the Cowboys and Giants, the point spread is 4.5 points, while the odds are -110, meaning you would have to wager $110 to earn a profit of $100, or a profit of $0.91 for every dollar you bet. Jan 13, 2021 That is why we have created this short guide to understanding NFL betting odds, beginning with the moneyline. The moneyline is simple and the odds are easy to understand. You will find a full selection of moneyline odds at most mobile betting apps, such as BetRivers, which is arguably the most popular IN betting site.
Nfl Odds
NFL football and betting go hand-in-hand: Despite the denials ofNFL and especially NCAA officials, betting and football have been inextricablylinked since the dawn of the big league in the Roaring 20s. And as footballsteadily gained in popularity until finally becoming the USA’s favoritetelevised sport, the influence of betting on the NFL has changed the very waywe discuss and analyze all major sports – not to mention untold billions ofdollars changing hands.
Three major developments led to the dominance of NFL betting linesover North American sport. Seminal to betting today are the “point spread” and“over/under” bets. The creation of standardized forms of these bets is creditedto Charles K. McNeil, a small-time gambler who was quite deft with mathematics.
Whereas prior to McNeil’s innovations of the late 1930s, the would-be NFL bettor would propose a bet to a bookie, say a certain team wins by a certain number of points, and the bookie would offer odds. McNeil’s creation of pointspread – and later the over/under – represent an agglomeration of all odds on all reasonable possible wagers on a given game. But never mind the mathematics: The point (so to speak) here is that in NFL betting (and quite a few other sports), the most popular bets week to week all begin “I’ll take team X plus/minus the points…” and “I’ll take the over on…”
The second key event took place on the field: The 1968 NFLChampionship Game (in which the Baltimore Colts entered as 3½-point favoritesat the New York Giants). This game is still, even in our age given to rampantsports hyperbole, considered one of the greatest NFL games ever played. Thisgame also helped show the American audience the appeal of the point spread inpredicting games – though the college game had offered pointspread betting fordecades, the ’58 game moved professional football up to the level of popularityenjoyed by college ball.
Finally came the Supreme Court decisions regarding theconstitutionality of banning sports betting in early 2018; with these rulingsallowing individual states and Native American nations to decriminalize andregulate online sports betting. Just as a handful of European nations simultaneouslygot to passing legalization laws in time for the 2010 World Cup, the statesearliest to legalize sports betting (Delaware, Mississippi, New Jersey and WestVirginia) all did so by the 2018 NFL season’s opening game; the West Virginiastate legislature managed to get the bill enacted into law just one week beforethat season’s first TNF game.
Why this stampede to decriminalize? Statistics have estimated thatup to 80% of all betting in the U.S. is done on NFL and college football games.Estimates of non-regulated gambling alone in the U.S. were estimated atanywhere between $95 billion and $150 billion per year as of 2017. So, yeah.
NFL Betting Lines: The gold standard forsportsbook bets
This combination of streamlining football betsand marketability of football has resulted in the NFL betting lines we all takefor granted today. As an example, here’s the full standard line from a recentinfamous NFL game:
New England Patriots -2.5 -130 56.5
Los Angeles Rams +2.5 +120 56.5
The recent rise in the popularity of sports betting has evolved NFL betting lines in the public consciousness from incomprehensible cipher to a standard employed by virtually every other sport; even soccer with its low scores employs pointspread bets, very often set at +/-0.5 goals. When the standardization of NFL betting lines to present the popular wagers in the order of point spread, money line (i.e. the odds on a team to win a given game straight-up), over/under, but few deviations of this presentation may be found.
The only drawback to usage of what is now called the “Americanodds format” for the money line is its relative counterintuitive-ness andfrequent lack of easy calculability. In the NFL betting lines shown above, thePatriots have a money line of -130, meaning that if one bets $130, the win is$100. So if I’m wagering $500, the return is…$384.61. Of course.
However, even this tiny bit of complexity is a recent innovationto NFL betting lines that has come with technology that allows transactions –and changes to the odds – in a fraction of a second, and thus more precision tothese lines has resulted in the 21st century.
So check out the up-to-the-minute NFL betting lines available forthis week’s games at any NFLbets-partnering sportsbook site today!
If you've never set foot in an actual sportsbook before or logged into an online sportsbook, the chances of you getting overwhelmed when you actually do is very high. In an actual Las Vegas sportsbook, there is typically a lot of commotion and the odds and lines are displayed on a massive digital board for everyone to see. When a novice sports bettor looks at the massive digital signage, they will see a bunch of numbers, both positive and negative, some two digits, some three digits. They also won't have a clue what any of it means. The same can be said for the online sportsbooks. It looks like a massive spreadsheet with negative and positive numbers beside each teams' name.
The easiest way for me to describe what all these numbers mean to you is to define it as point spread betting. Point spread betting is the most popular way to bet on the NFL and NBA, and it is a way for a sportsbook to generate betting interest on both sides.
Linemakers who work for the sportsbooks must put out lines that will entice the 'favorite' bettors to lay the points and take the favorite or entice the underdog bettors to take the points with the underdog.
As an example, let's say you are looking to place your very first wager on the Super Bowl. You look at the matchup either online or at a Las Vegas sportsbook and this is what you see:
Kansas City +4.5 (-110)
Carolina -4.5 (-110)
How Do Point Spread Bets Work?
Using the example above, the linemakers have determined that the Carolina Panthers are 4.5-point favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs. The favorite team can also be referred to as the chalk . The favorite will always be represented by a negative (-) number, while the underdog will always be represented by a positive (+) number.
Understanding Nfl Odds Against
Based on the line above and which team you decide to bet on, the Panthers must win by five or more points in order for those with a Panthers (-4.5) ticket to be declared a winner. As long as the Panthers win by five or more points, the final score itself does not matter. A 10-0 win is just as much a winner as a 56-50 win.
However, if the Panthers were to win the game by four or less points, then all Panthers backers can toss their tickets in the trash. A 17-14 or 21-17 Panthers win would cash the tickets with Chiefs +4.5 on them. A Falcons outright win as 4.5-point underdogs would do the same.
What is the -110 Line?
The standard price to pay when betting on point spreads is (-110). This is the sportsbooks way of ensuring a profit no matter which side covers the spread. The extra 10 cents is also known as the 'juice' or 'vig' . Paying the extra 10 cents is like paying a tax or commission to the sportsbook for brokering the bet.
The -110 line means that in order for you to profit $100 you must wager $110. Some sportsbook offer something called 'reduced juice' , which means that you can still profit $100 but the risk is a few dollars less.
For example, if you see reduced lines such as -7.5 (-105) that means that you must risk $105 dollars in order to profit $100. If you see -7.5 (-102) then you must bet $102 in order to profit $100. It may not seem like a big deal at the time, but saving a few bucks each time over the course of the season can really help your bankroll.
Which brings me to my next point. If you are serious about getting into sports betting, it is vital to have more than one sportsbook to make a wager at. Shopping around for the best lines will help your bankroll and you will be able to turn a bigger profit. If you see a pair of sneakers for $110 at one store, and the exact same pair is $102.99 at another store - which store are you buying them from?
What is a Push?
When betting the point spread, there is almost always a winner and a loser. However, in some instances sportsbook decide to put out a whole number such as -3 for bettors to bet on. If the final score ends with a differential of three points - no matter who wins - the bet is considered a 'push' and all money is refunded to both sides since neither team covered the spread.
What does Pick'em or PK Mean?
When two teams are evenly matched, and the sportsbook can't decide which team should be the favorite, they will release PK lines which means neither team is favorite. The team you wager on must simply win the game by any score in order for your ticket to be graded as a winner.
What Happens When the Point Spread Changes?
This is a very common occurrence throughout the sports betting industry. Sportsbooks have the right to shift the spread or odds for any given match prior to it starting. Many factors play a huge role in this decision, and they include injuries, weather, the volume of bets on one side, and anything in between. Depending on the time you place your wager, the bettor may also have an advantage or disadvantage based on which way the spread has shifted.
For example:
Opening Line: Carolina -4.5 vs Atlanta +4.5
Thursday's Line: Carolina -2.5 vs Atlanta +2.5
If bettors were quick to jump on the Atlanta line at +4.5 when it first came out, they would have a distinct advantage over those who waited closer to kick off and were stuck with +2.5. The opposite holds true for Carolina. Bettors that were quick to pull the trigger are now laying two more points than they would if they were patient and saw the line movement before making their move.
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